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NSW Politics: The ABC's Antony Green says Mike Baird might still lose

Can Mike Baird hold on to power in NSW?
The new Liberal Premier of New South Wales Mike Baird may be about to do the impossible - lose government.

Who would have ever thought that three years after winning only 7 of 89 seats in the Queensland Parliament, Labor would win the next election.

But a similar thing could easily occur in NSW.

Mike Baird carries a litany of corruption, broken promises and corrupt members on the conservative side of the NSW parliament.

He deserves to lose and may well do so given the current fickle nature of Australian politics.

The Courier-Mail reports:  NOT so long ago, the 2015 NSW election was shaping up as a drab, dry affair.

BUT a $3000 bottle of plonk, a foggy memory, a letter written on behalf of Sydney siege gunman Man Haron Monis and Prime Minister Tony Abbott's unpopularity have livened up proceedings.Barry O'Farrell, who led the coalition to a landslide victory in 2011, fell on his sword last April after giving misleading evidence to ICAC about a bottle of red gifted to him by a Liberal donor.

His Treasurer Mike Baird, formerly a merchant banker, was anointed premier and set about regaining the public's trust in politics.

But the issue that has come to dominate Mr Baird's premiership, and one that might define his political career is power privatisation.

All the recent opinion polls suggest the coalition will be returned to power with a diminished majority.

Even the worst poll result for the coalition, a Galaxy survey published in February, has the Baird government returning with a comfortable majority despite it suffering an 11 per cent swing against it.

That scenario could leave Labor with an extra 16 seats should the swing be applied uniformly across the state.

But the ABC's election analyst Antony Green says the coalition is at risk of losing its majority.

He argues the nature of Labor's defensive 2011 campaign means that many coalition seats are sitting on "vastly inflated" margins and could be under threat.

A number of far north coasts seats held by The Nationals on 20-plus per cent margins are in reality at serious risk of falling to the ALP, Mr Green suggests.

NSW Liberals are also worried that Mr Abbott's sagging popularity will translate to a sizeable swing against the Baird government.

Whatever ends up happening in Canberra, the recent Queensland and Victorian election results exemplified the increasing volatility of voting patterns across Australia.

Mr Baird has been warned.